Wisconsin’s Democrats have got the blues as they fend off resurgent Republicans

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Wisconsin’s Democrats have got the blues

MADISON, Wis. — Until recently, Wisconsin seemed to be a Democratic strategist’s dream — a blue state getting bluer. Its two U.S. senators were well-established liberal Democrats. The governor’s office and both houses of the Legislature were in Democratic control after years of divided government. And President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 by 14 percentage points, one of his largest victory margins anywhere.

But something went awry on the way to Democratic hegemony.

A conservative insurgency — headed by a Republican candidate who actively courts, of all things, the tea party — is now making a strong bid for governor. And across the state, Democrats suddenly find themselves fighting to hold seats they once took for granted.

“Obviously we’re all nervous about our own situations,” said state Rep. Marlin Schneider, a Democrat who has served in the Legislature since 1970 and now faces two Republican challengers and an Independent. “There is a nasty mood there that has been there since the 2008 election.”

Voter disdain for those in power is being felt across the nation, including many states that have voted Democratic, such as Colorado and Nevada. But in perhaps no other is the backlash more striking than in Wisconsin, considered a party stronghold.

With six months before Election Day, Republicans are pressing to claim the governor’s office for the first time since 2001, win majorities in the Legislature, challenge liberal U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold with a tea party proponent, and seriously contend in three of the five congressional districts held by Democrats.

The governor’s race is wide open after two-term incumbent Democrat Jim Doyle, amid sinking approval ratings and the worst state budget shortfall in Wisconsin history, decided not to seek re-election.

Scott Walker, the Republican Milwaukee County executive and tea party supporter, overwhelmingly won the GOP endorsement and has campaigned on repealing tax increases on big business and the wealthy. Walker has also called for adopting a version Arizona’s new immigration law that gives police more authority to question the immigration status of people stopped for traffic violations. The law is so controversial that even many Republicans in conservative states have shied away from it.

But a poll conducted by St. Norbert College in late March showed Walker leading Tom Barrett, the Milwaukee mayor and Democratic nominee, by 16 percentage points. Walker had roughly $2 million in the bank at the end of 2009, ahead of Barrett’s $1.5 million, the latest figures available.

The idea of a Republican winning statewide office is not unusual in Wisconsin. But it’s rare for someone as conservative as Walker to catch on. With a few notable exceptions, such as former Sen. Joe McCarthy, who exploited Cold War tensions in the 1950s to launch a notorious witch hunt for communists in government, Republican standard-bearers here have tended to be moderate. Social reformer Robert La Follette Sr., who was the Progressive Party presidential candidate in 1924, epitomized Wisconsin Republicanism. Former Republican Govs. Lee Dreyfus signed the nation’s first statewide gay rights bill in 1982 and Tommy Thompson reformed welfare in the 1990s.

Since Thompson left office, Wisconsin has moved steadily in a Democratic direction. Liberal Democrats Feingold and fellow Sen. Herb Kohl have not had serious challenges in recent elections.

But in the last year in Wisconsin, conservative candidates who once would have been fringe figures have capitalized of the national voter dissatisfaction. “Conservatives have really revitalized the Republican Party,” said pollster.com co-developer Charles Franklin, a University of Wisconsin political science professor.

Walker said his conservative message resonates with voters angry over the federal stimulus, health care reform, and Wisconsin’s ongoing budget woes. “The left has clearly overreached,” Walker said.

In the end, it’s not clear how many, if any, of these races Republicans will actually win. Democrats still have significant advantages, including a formidable campaign organization. Feingold is still considered the front-runner in his race.

But the conservatives’ momentum so far has attracted attention. Their bid has been aided somewhat by luck. The unexpected retirement of liberal Rep. David Obey after 41 years in office may have improved their chances. The leading Republican candidate for his seat is tea party supporter Sean Duffy, a district attorney and former cast member of MTV’s “The Real World” who has raised $400,000 and been endorsed by Sarah Palin.

Another tea party devotee, Ron Johnson, a political unknown who owns an Oshkosh plastics business, surprised many by beating out prominent Republican Dick Leinenkugel and other well-funded competitors for the Republican endorsement to face Feingold. In another House district, five Republican candidates are vying in the September primary to challenge Democrat Steve Kagen.

Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate said he thinks the state remains basically Democratic. But his Republican counterpart, Reince Priebus, says the GOP finally seems to be back on its feet here after getting “absolutely clobbered” in recent elections. This time, “We’ve reached the point in this state and this country where people feel the wind’s at our backs for the first time in a long time.”