Economist: Wyoming may recover from recession sooner than expected

Economist: Wyoming may mend sooner than expected

CHEYENNE, Wyo. — Wyoming may emerge from the recession more quickly than previously expected, but the state still is far from full economy recovery, economists and the governor said.

Personal income is already climbing and unemployment is declining, according to the state’s Economic Analysis Division.

Personal income increased 0.9 percent in the first three months of the year but remains 1.5 percent less than it was a year ago. Unemployment hit 7.6 percent in January but declined to 7.0 percent in May.

“It’s just going to be slow. These numbers are still historically high for Wyoming,” Gov. Dave Freudenthal said. “It’s encouraging and it’s hopeful, but as I’ve said before I can’t tell whether we’ve actually turned the corner, but I’m delighted that it doesn’t seem like we’re trending down.”

The improvement in personal income numbers is largely attributable to the mining sector, a major employer in the state, said Winlin Liu, a senior economist in the division. Earnings in that sector increased 3.7 percent since late 2009.

Although there is improvement, it will “probably take a couple of years before we completely come back,” Liu said.

Dick O’Gara, director of the Wyoming Center for Business and Economic Analysis, says the numbers indicate the state’s economy has bottomed out.

He says the improved unemployment numbers probably reflect seasonal job increases in construction and tourism, rather than job growth.

“We’re not seeing any job growth yet, but we’re seeing the number of job losses falling,” he said.

Liu and O’Gara agreed that there are indications Wyoming won’t lag behind the nation in the recovery like it usually does. The state generally runs about a year behind in the beginning and the recovery of a recession.

“The numbers are certainly giving us the indication that this time around, our recession may be almost as quick as the national recession,” he said. “We may already be starting back up.”

Information from: Wyoming Tribune Eagle - Cheyenne, www.wyomingnews.com