Health care overhaul teeters _ loss in Mass. Senate race could leave Dems with no good options

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Dem health care overhaul endangered by Mass. race

WASHINGTON — Democrats faced the unthinkable Tuesday — losing their prized health care overhaul along with Edward M. Kennedy’s Senate seat, just as Kennedy’s and President Barack Obama’s goal seemed tantalizingly close to reality.

Obama and party leaders anxiously worked through fallback options — none good — for salvaging the president’s top domestic initiative. At the same time, their eyes were on Massachusetts’ special election.

If Republican state Sen. Scott Brown prevailed over Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley, it would deprive Democrats of the 60-vote Senate majority needed to pass health care over the so-far-unanimous opposition of Republicans.

That would force Obama and Democratic leaders to consider a series of wrenching shortcuts involving escalating political risk. Significant differences between the House and Senate health care bills would have to be quickly settled by presidential fiat, and Democratic lawmakers would have to move in virtual lockstep to enact them.

That could be too much to ask from rank-and-file Democrats demoralized by losing a seat held in an almost unbroken line by a Kennedy since 1953. Efforts to woo a Republican convert could increase. But with polls showing voters souring on health care overhaul — and GOP leaders certain to intensify their attack — the president could be abandoned by lawmakers of his own party.

“If we can’t do this with 60, how do we do it with 59?” said Rep. Anthony Weiner, D-N.Y., who argued that independents had turned against the legislation and the Democratic base had lost its enthusiasm.

Weiner said Democrats had to show they got the message by regrouping, possibly delaying health care and perhaps passing a more modest bill.

White House spokesman Robert Gibbs acknowledged for the first time that Obama may have come up short in making his case for the sweeping legislation.

“I think we’d be the first to admit that we think there are a lot more benefits than people see and feel in these bills,” Gibbs told reporters. “If that’s a failing, I think that it’s certainly a failing that I and others here at the White House take responsibility for, up to and including the president.”

Democratic congressional leaders put on a show of resolve. In 1994, Democrats failed to act on President Bill Clinton’s health care package and lost control of Congress.

“Whatever happens in Massachusetts, we will have quality, affordable health care for all Americans, and we will have it soon,” said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

But how to get it done?

Two fallback options if Democrats lose in Massachusetts were discussed over the weekend, but they represent a long shot. Even more uncertain are the chances for persuading Maine Republican Sen. Olympia Snowe to come along, since she opposed the Senate version.

The cleanest option calls for the House to quickly pass the Senate bill and send it to Obama for his signature. But that ignores at least two significant problems.

Labor unions are adamantly opposed to an insurance tax in the Senate bill, and they successfully negotiated with Obama last week to weaken it in key respects. Second, a core group of anti-abortion Democrats says the Senate bill’s provisions on restricting taxpayer funding for abortion are too weak.

On top of that, many House Democrats do not believe the Senate bill provides enough aid to make health insurance affordable.

“The Senate bill clearly is better than nothing,” said House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md. He refused to speculate on whether House Democrats could be cajoled into voting for it without changes.

Democrats sent mixed signals on whether the House should try to pass the Senate bill, with only a handful of lawmakers rejecting the idea outright.

“I think it’s important for us to pass legislation. I haven’t completely analyzed it myself, but if that’s the only option in town, then maybe that’s what we ought to do,” said Rep. Baron Hill, D-Ind., who represents a swing state district.

But Rep. Bart Stupak, D-Mich., sponsor of a House-passed provision restricting taxpayer funding for abortion, said he could not back the Senate bill.

Rep. Patrick Kennedy, D-R.I., son of the late senator, summed up the Democrats’ difficulties.

“There is only one guarantee — that if we don’t pass something the notion of trying to put Humpty Dumpty together again is a real long shot. If you understand the legislative process, it’s a lot easier to pass something and fix it later.”

House objections lead to the second fallback option: getting the Senate to accept changes to its bill as a condition for House passage. It involves a complicated legislative choreography that could take several weeks to play out.

Without 60 votes needed to overcome Republican delaying tactics, that strategy would require Senate Democratic leaders to use a special budget-related procedure to pass the changes with only 51 votes. It’s guaranteed to enrage Republicans, and it’s not clear that Senate Democratic leaders have political support to pull it off.

To complicate matters, additional legislation may be required to resolve disputes about abortion funding and illegal immigrants. In the meantime, the drumbeat from opponents of the legislation could be deafening.

As recently as Friday it seemed that Democratic congressional leaders and Obama were close to a deal to remove remaining obstacles to final passage in the House and Senate, sending the bill back for votes in both chambers. Among the tentative agreements was extending major insurance-related consumer protections to tens of millions covered by large employers.

Snowe, the Maine Republican who supported a version of the Senate bill in committee, remains an intriguing figure in the endgame.

Obama called Snowe on Friday to discuss health care. They have spoken regularly and Gibbs said Obama continues trying to win her over.

Associated Press writers David Espo, Alan Fram, Erica Werner and Darlene Superville contributed to this report.