Yanukoyvch’s lede in Ukraine vote could evaporate in runoff with shrewd Tymoshenko

Ukraine’s final presidential ballot could be close

KIEV, Ukraine — Voters in the first round of Ukraine’s presidential election gave opposition leader Viktor Yanukoyvch, the 2004 Orange Revolution’s chief target, a big lead over his rival, Orange heroine and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

But that advantage in Sunday’s vote could prove illusory when the two go head to head Feb. 7 in the final round of voting. Many expect a very close race.

No matter who wins, when it comes to the most important policy issue facing Ukraine, relations with Russia, both candidates may have little choice but to follow the same path.

Analysts say Yanukovych’s 35.4 percent to 25 percent lead over Tymoshenko, with 97.7 percent of votes counted Monday, is misleading, because she is likely to pick up most of the votes of 16 also-rans. Almost 67 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.

Some analysts say that Tymoshenko’s political skills and sharp instincts will give her the edge in the runoff.

“Yanukovych’s voter base has been exhausted. Although it was strong and compact and never betrayed him, it did not grow,” said Viktor Nebozhenko, director of the sociology institute Ukrainian Barometer. “Tymoshenko, as a great communicator, has a chance to win this election.”

It’s rare for a woman to hold high political office in the former Soviet Union, and Tymoshenko has her detractors. But many Ukrainian women see her as a role model, even if they don’t always admire her political moves.

Some polls show Tymoshenko trailing Yanukovych, but analysts say much of her support comes from rural areas, where voters are harder for surveys to reach. And analyst Oleksandr Dergachev said “high levels of distrust” have prevented Yanukovych from getting more than 40 percent of the vote in nationwide elections.

“It is difficult to predict the outcome of the second round, but Yanukovych will find it harder to expand the electorate than Tymoshenko,” Dergachev said.

Some disappointed candidates may throw their weight behind Yanukovych. But analysts said endorsements were unlikely to sway many votes.

Despite their policy and personality differences, Tymoshenko and Yanukovych share a similar view of Ukraine’s relations with Russia, Ukraine’s giant neighbor to the east, by far Ukraine’s biggest trading partner and the region’s dominant military power.

In the future, NATO membership is out. There will be no more Kremlin-bashing in Kiev, and relations with Georgia will not be nearly as close as they were under Orange President Viktor Yushchenko, who won just 5.5 percent of Sunday’s vote.

Five years ago many Orange protesters dreamed of breaking Ukraine’s historical dependence on Moscow and becoming part of Western Europe. But they’ve had a rude awakening, in the form of a battle with Russia over energy prices, the 2008 Russia-Georgia war and one of the worst recessions in Europe.

All seemed to demonstrate that like it or not, Ukraine couldn’t get along without good relations with Russia, its historic ally.

The blunt-spoken Yanukovych, a former electrician and factory manager, has pledged to scrap Ukraine’s NATO bid and elevate Russian to the status of a second official language, alongside Ukrainian.

In 2007, Tymoshenko, a heroine of the 2004 pro-Western Orange Revolution, criticized what she called Russia’s imperial ambitions. But in the past year she has made peace with the Kremlin on energy and security issues.

Despite warnings of large-scale election fraud in the days leading up to Sunday’s vote, officials and international election observers said the ballot was fair and orderly.

“The polling in Ukraine yesterday was overall the same as polling in any other democratic country,” Matyas Eorsi, chairman of the observation mission from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, said Monday.

“It is the first time since independence (in 1991) that it has been possible to say this. Ukraine deserves enormous congratulation for this.”

Joao Soares, president of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, said the election was “very promising for the future of Ukraine’s democracy.”

Yanukovych told reporters Monday that 70 percent of the votes went to candidates outside the current government.

“People are tired of empty promises that are not supported by real cases, people are tired of the constant intrigue,” he said. “People voted for change.”

And he said Tymoshenko had a lot to answer for.

“She often makes statements that are untrue,” he said. “This is her style, that is her habit.”

Five years ago, allegations of fraud in the presidential vote sent tens of thousands of Ukrainians into the streets of Kiev, demanding an end to what they regarded as a corrupt regime. Orange forces accused Yanukovych of stealing that election from Yushchenko.

After weeks of protests, Yushchenko beat Yanukovych in a court-ordered revote.

On Sunday, Yanukovych celebrated turning the tables on Yushchenko. “Today marks the end of Orange power,” he declared. “There will be no room for (Yushchenko) in the second round. He has officially lost the faith of the people.”

After his election, Yushchenko became embroiled in political skirmishing that paralyzed the government and he failed to push through many of his promised reforms.

Ukraine’s currency crashed in 2008, the economy sputtered and the International Monetary Fund had to step in with a $16.4 billion (€11.41 billion) bailout. Ukraine’s gross domestic product plunged by 15 percent in 2009, according to the World Bank, which estimates that the country will see anemic growth this year.

The next president will face the same problems.

Yury Yakimenko, an analyst at Razumkov Center, said the presidency itself is hopelessly compromised, because the office’s powers were given to parliament as part of a deal that ended the 2004 conflict.

“Either Tymoshenko or Yanukovych will be forced to reform the Constitution to have real authority to overcome the crisis,” Yakimenko predicted. “Ukraine is mired in political squabbles and fights. The economic situation is close to collapse. The situation could spiral out of control.”

Yanukovych faces one of the biggest challenges, Yakimenko said, because if he becomes president he will have to work with Prime Minister Tymoshenko.

“This will lead to a new political war and early parliamentary elections,” Yakimenko predicted.

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Associated Press writer Yuras Karmanau contributed to this report.