Ukraine re-enacts Orange Revolution showdown in Sunday election _ but winner likely Moscow

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Ukraine ballot Sunday re-enacts Orange Revolution

KIEV, Ukraine — Ukraine is teetering between east and west in Sunday’s presidential runoff, with the winner likely to scramble to mollify an increasingly assertive Moscow while at the same time seeking stronger ties with Europe.

The election would seem to offer voters a stark choice, pitting Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, a pro-Western populist who wears a halo of blond braids, against the stolid Viktor Yanukovych, a one-time Soviet-era apparatchik with strong support in Ukraine’s Russian-speaking east.

During the pro-democracy Orange Revolution protests five years ago, the two candidates stood on opposite sides, with Tymoshenko, whose campaign slogans include “Ticket to Europe,” calling for Ukraine to turn west, while Yanukovych faced east, winning the explicit support of Vladimir Putin, then Russia’s president

Today the political lines have been blurred, and both have been pushed to the middle.

A severe recession and skyrocketing inflation have idled factories, eroded savings and made this heavily industrialized former Soviet republic far more dependent on Russia than it was in 2004. At the same time, polls show a solid majority of voters still support Orange goals and favor building a European-style country.

As prime minister, Tymoshenko was tarnished by the recession and by her squabbling with one-time Orange ally President Viktor Yushchenko, a rivalry that at times gridlocked the government.

Although she is a fiery orator who inspires devotion among the core of her supporters, her approval ratings sank from 47 percent in spring 2005 to 14 percent last October.

Yanukovych, meanwhile, has patiently persevered following his humiliating defeat in the 2004 presidential race, when his initial victory over the patrician Yushchenko was challenged by hundreds of thousands of protesters and overturned by the courts. Yanukovych now has a rock-solid base, a disciplined party organization, and the backing of some of Ukraine’s wealthiest industrialists.

Mocked for his frequent malapropisms — at a recent rally he said “gathered here is the best genocide in the country” when he meant to say “gene pool” — and his stumbling Ukrainian, Yanukovych has sought to cast himself as an avuncular straight-talker.

In the first round of voting Jan. 17 Yanukovych beat Tymoshenko handily, 35-25 percent, as the Orange vote splintered among about a dozen candidates.

Tymoshenko can still unite the Orange vote and beat back Yanukovych’s challenge Sunday, experts say, but it will be an uphill battle. “There are many Orange voters who are genuinely undecided or reluctant to back her,” said Andrew Wilson of the European Council on Foreign Relations.

Whoever wins, the next president seems certain to abandon some of the uncompromising nationalist policies of Yushchenko.

The Orange leader and Kremlin foe pushed for NATO membership despite Moscow’s angry protests, supported Georgia in its 2008 war against Russia and advocated kicking Russia out of its Sevastopol naval base, headquarters of the Black Sea fleet.

Tymoshenko and Yanukovych have been cagey about the hot-button issue of NATO membership, failing to make a single reference to it in their election programs. Yanukovych favors extending the lease on Sevastopol, but Tymoshenko points out that the country’s constitution does not allow for foreign military forces to be based in Ukraine after 2017.

Both seem likely to give their blessing to a visa and trade deal with the European Union this year that could pave the way for eventual EU membership.

Members of Yanukovych’s party have advocated joining Russia in recognizing the independence of two breakaway Georgian regions, though he has avoided the issue during the campaign. Tymoshenko has also sought to keep the topic of Georgia at arms length.

Despite the similarities between the two candidates, analysts expect Tymoshenko to pursue pro-Western policies more vigorously, while Yankukovych could tilt toward the Kremlin on a number of critical issues — including the EU’s efforts to reform the operation of Ukraine’s huge natural gas pipeline network, through which Russia supplies Europe with much of its energy.

These reforms could end Moscow’s periodic cutoff of gas to Europe in disputes with Ukraine, and limit what some see as Kremlin efforts to use natural gas supplies as a political weapon. Yanukovych envisions setting up a joint operating company with Russia to run Ukraine’s pipelines, which he believes will ensure regular supply and keep gas prices low.

Overall, though, neither Tymoshenko nor Yanukovych have stressed foreign policy in their campaigns. Neither is likely to stray far from the middle in trying to lead this divided nation.

“Neither is a Russian puppet, and neither is going to completely reinvent relations with Europe overnight,” said Wilson. “But they’re going to play the game of balance differently, because behind them stand different interests.”

Complicating the election is a spy scandal between Ukraine and Russia that is raising tensions ahead of the vote. Ukraine’s security service said Wednesday five Russians were detained last month after being caught trying to obtain confidential military information.

Russia’s Federal Security Service, or FSB, confirmed its agents had been detained, but accused Ukraine of sensationalizing the issue.

The next president is likely to try to tame Ukraine’s contentious parliament and strive to restore many of the presidential powers sacrificed as part of the peaceful settlement of the 2004 Orange revolt.

But it’s not clear how vigorously either will defend the chief accomplishment of the Orange movement: Ukraine’s media freedoms and political pluralism, heavily restricted in much of the former Soviet Union.

Whoever wins, the election promises to have a messy aftermath: both candidates have warned that they would challenge alleged fraud in the streets as well as the courts.

“We’re tired of fighting, but I’ll remember the Orange Revolution and help Yulia win,” said Igor Turchen, a 39-year-old teacher, as he passed a poster of Tymoshenko with one of her campaign posters, which bore the slogan: “Ticket to Europe.”

But voters in January’s first round election seemed far less polarized and motivated than in 2004. Any postelection protests, some analysts predict, would likely be small and not influence the outcome of the vote.

Meanwhile if Sunday’s election is as clean as international observers said January’s first round was, it could prove difficult for the loser to challenge the outcome in the courts.

With so much at stake and both sides smelling victory, the campaign has taken on a nasty personal tone.

Tymoshenko called Yanukovych a “coward” and a “weakling” for refusing televised debates. Yanukovych meanwhile belittled his opponent’s gender, saying “you can’t argue with a woman,” and saying “she should go to the kitchen.”

Associated Press Writer Yuras Karmanau contributed to this report.

(This version CORRECTS Corrects that Orange Revolution protests five years ago sted four; CLARIFIES Ukraine former Soviet republic; ADDS details of Russia-Ukraine spying scandal)