Once a GOP star, Florida Gov. Crist could be forced to run as an independent for US Senate

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Out of Fla. GOP favor, Crist could go independent

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Gov. Charlie Crist was once a rapidly rising Republican star, a potential running mate for John McCain, a man with a bright political future who moved from an obscure state post to education commissioner, attorney general and governor — all within six years.

Now it’s becoming increasingly likely that Crist’s dream of becoming a U.S. senator will compel him to bolt from the GOP, the party that once nurtured him but has moved too far right for even a political chameleon like him to handle.

Polls show Crist already trailing badly in the Senate primary, and he further alienated many powerful Republican and business interests Thursday by vetoing a contentious bill that would have made it easier to fire teachers and linked their pay to student test scores. At the same time, he scored points with the influential teachers union and other traditionally Democratic constituents who won’t have a say in August’s GOP primary.

“It has nothing to do with politics at all,” Crist said. “It has everything to do with children.”

The veto may at least partly reflect the governor’s only real hope — to position himself as a relatively moderate alternative to former House speaker Marco Rubio, the conservative Republican, and Kendrick Meek, the likely Democratic nominee in November’s general election.

The three are vying to succeed Republican Mel Martinez, who left before his term ended. Crist appointed his former chief of staff, George LeMieux, to fill the seat temporarily.

“The biggest threat to Crist’s political career is the Republican primary,” said Peter Brown, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

Crist must decide by April 30 if he will remain in the Republican primary or take his chances as an independent, which Brown said appears to be his best bet for political survival. He cannot switch after the Aug. 24 primary, so his political future hinges on whatever decision he makes about running as an independent in the coming weeks.

A Quinnipiac poll of 1,250 registered voters released Thursday shows that in a three-way race, Crist would get 32 percent of the vote, compared with 30 percent for Rubio and 24 percent for Meek. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.

The outcome was more bleak in a head-to-head GOP primary, with the Quinnipiac poll of 497 registered Republicans showing Rubio crushing Crist with 56 percent of the vote to 33 percent for the governor. That poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Crist has sent mixed signals about his plans, with his campaign manager slamming the door on an independent run just last week.

“As we have said countless times before, Governor Crist is running for the United States Senate as a Republican,” Erik Eikenberg said then. “He will not run as an independent.”

Now, that door seems to have cracked open. Given repeated opportunities this week to rule out an independent run, Crist ducked and weaved and declined direct comment. He would not refute a Wednesday report in The Wall Street Journal that quoted his campaign manager saying that the governor would qualify for the Senate race, but without specifically saying that he would run as a Republican.

In early March, Crist dwelled on the merits of moderation as he delivered his State of the State message to the Legislature, lambasting politicians who hold “extreme views.”

Most of the Democratic minority applauded Crist’s remarks. Most of the Republican majority did not.

Though generally viewed as a genial populist, Crist often boasted about his conservative credentials in recent years.

During the 2006 GOP gubernatorial primary, he vowed to govern in then-Gov. Jeb Bush’s conservative tradition. He also associated himself with the governor’s brother, President George W. Bush, until Bush’s popularity sank. He easily won both the primary and the general election.

He promoted himself as a fierce tax-cutter, promising to make property taxes “drop like a rock.” They were reduced, though maybe not quite that much.

More recently, Crist famously hugged President Barack Obama in February 2009, endorsed the federal stimulus package and welcomed the arrival of billions of stimulus dollars to Florida. He later denied endorsing the stimulus and criticized Obama for the administration’s fiscal policies.

“He’s played a game of political hopscotch,” said Tom Slade, a former state Republican Party chairman.

Four months ago, the Quinnipiac poll showed just a 3 percentage point lead for Rubio, who began the race as a virtual unknown but rapidly gained favor with conservatives both inside and outside the state.

“If Charlie Crist runs as an independent, I would vote for him and I would support him,” said Brian Ballard, a close friend and Crist fundraiser who also served as chief of staff to former Gov. Bob Martinez. “It would be a sad day for me if he would not be the Republican nominee, but he still is a man I have enormous respect for.”

Other Republicans are not at all supportive.

“Crist is a Democrat dressed up as a Republican as far as I can tell,” said Danny Martin, 48, of Pembroke Pines, who plans to vote for Rubio. “I want somebody that’s conservative. He’s not.”

Slade, a Rubio supporter, said Crist comes across as self-centered — and at the wrong time.

“If you bought Charlie Crist a T-shirt, it would say, ‘The thing about me is, it’s all about me,’ and that’s not selling today,” Slade said. “And now, along comes a good-looking young guy who has a conservative philosophy when there is a hunger for someone to come along and go to Washington to change government.”

Even some of Crist’s supporters admit he would be taking an enormous risk if he were to run as an independent.

“This is not a comfortable situation for anybody, should he choose to go down this path,” said Ballard, who now works as a Tallahassee lobbyist. “There’s kind of a club. You’re in the club. That part makes it awkward for a lot of folks who care about him.”

Associated Press Writers Christine Armario in Miami, Bill Kaczor in Tallahassee and Melissa Nelson in Pensacola contributed to this report.