Fallout from Dubai debt crisis raises fears of renewed financial turmoil

Dubai debt crisis raises financial turmoil fears

HONG KONG — The fallout from Dubai’s debt crisis rippled across the globe Friday, raising concerns of another wave of financial turmoil and showing how vulnerable the world economy remains despite signs of recovery.

As global stock, commodity and currency markets went into a tailspin, the possible spillover effects from Dubai surfaced from London to South Korea, with banks big and small drawing concern for any losses they could suffer as a result of their exposure to the massively debt-laden emirate.

A year after the global slump derailed Dubai’s explosive growth, the city-state’s main investment arm, Dubai World, revealed this week it was asking for at least a six-month delay on paying back its $60 billion debt. Major credit agencies responded by slashing debt ratings on Dubai’s state companies, saying they might consider the plan a default.

In recent years, Dubai has expanded with ambitious, eye-catching projects like the Gulf’s palm-shaped islands and the world’s tallest skyscraper in hopes of becoming a tourist friendly and cosmopolitan Middle Eastern metropolis. In the process, however, the state-backed networks nicknamed Dubai Inc. have racked up $80 billion in red ink, and the emirate may now need another bailout from its oil-rich neighbor Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates.

Following a rout in Europe, Asia’s stock markets tumbled Friday while the dollar hit a fresh 14-year low against the yen as investors piled into currencies perceived as safer. Crude oil at one point fell more than 6 percent.

With Dubai World hard pressed to pay its bills, banks could take the biggest hit, analysts said.

Heavyweight London-based lenders HSBC Holdings and Standard Chartered could face losses of $611 million and $177 million respectively, according to early estimates from analysts at Goldman Sachs. Both have substantial Middle East operations.

In Asia, Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group, the country’s No. 3 bank, could be exposed to Dubai World’s indebted property arm to the tune of several hundred million dollars, according to a person familiar with the matter.

South Korea estimated the country’s financial institutions have just $88 million exposure. Construction firms from Japan, Australia and South Korea behind Dubai’s recent development boom also might be on the hook.

While most have the wherewithal to absorb any losses, Dubai’s troubles could lead banks to reevaluate and scale back their lending.

That could make it more difficult for companies to borrow money and hold down a world economy still emerging from the throes of its deepest recession in decades, analysts said.

Equally unsettling for investors was the uncertainty over which companies were exposed and how much money they might actually lose. European banks alone have $87 billion at risk in the U.A.E.

“It touched investors’ sensitive nerves,” said Cai Junyi, an analyst for Shanghai Securities. “The world is watching whether that will have any substantial impact … Dubai World is just like a small window that might reflect another financial tsunami.”

Emerging markets in the Middle East and elsewhere have attracted massive amounts of capital in recent years amid investor enthusiasm for regions with rapid economic growth. This year, financial markets in Asia and Latin America have vastly outperformed ones in the U.S. and Europe. But Dubai’s woes could bring a temporary end to the promiscuous buying behind the boom, analysts said.

“I think it will make investors realize they need to be more discriminating about emerging markets,” said Arjuna Mahendran, head of Asian investment strategy at HSBC Private Bank in Singapore. “In the longer term we have no doubt that things are going to recover.”

HSBC declined to comment. Calls to Standard Chartered representatives were not returned.

Among other companies with Dubai ties, South Korean construction firms have about 40 projects there whose remaining work is valued at as much as $3 billion. South Korea’s government expected the problems to have minimal impact.

AP Researcher Bonnie Cao in Beijing and AP Business Writers Kelly Olsen in Seoul and Yuri Kageyama in Tokyo contributed to this report.