Wall Street economists expect slight rise in unemployment claims; benefits run out Dec. 31

Ahead of the Bell: Jobless Claims

WASHINGTON — Applications for unemployment benefits have fallen by 10 percent in the past six weeks, but analysts don’t expect the positive trend to continue on Thursday.

Instead, Wall Street economists forecast that initial claims for jobless aid rose by 2,000 to 455,000 last week, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters. The Labor Department will issue its weekly report Thursday at 8:30 a.m.

Despite their recent declines, claims are still fluctuating around the 450,000 level. Applications need to fall to 425,000 or below to signal that hiring is picking up, economists say.

The initial claims figure, while volatile, is considered a real-time snapshot of the job market. It is also a measure of the pace of layoffs and an indication of companies’ willingness to hire.

Claims have fallen sharply since June 2009, the month the recession ended. First-time claims topped 600,000 at the end of that month.

But since the beginning of this year, claims have only dropped below 450,000 six times, and never for longer than two straight weeks.

The latest sign that jobs remain scarce came Wednesday, when payroll company ADP reported that private companies cut a net total of 39,000 jobs last month. Most analysts expected the report to show a gain.

The ADP figure is below what most economists project the government will report on Friday when it issues its own employment report for September. Private companies are forecast to have added a net total of 75,000 jobs. But that’s likely to be offset by the loss of 75,000 temporary census jobs. Overall, economists expect no change in total payrolls.

At the same time, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 9.7 percent from 9.6 percent, as more people enter the labor market searching for work.

Some companies are hiring despite the weak economy. Daryl Dulaney, chief executive of Siemens Industry Inc., says his company’s parent, Siemens USA, has 1,200 job openings. About 40 percent require an engineering or information technology background, and the company has had difficulty finding qualified candidates, despite the high jobless rate, Dulaney said.