Early retail reports suggest sluggish November; holiday uptick didn’t offset rest of month

Early retail reports suggest sluggish November

NEW YORK — Many merchants suffered through November as a modestly positive start to the holiday shopping season wasn’t strong enough to offset weak spending the rest of the month.

Sales for many that are even weaker than last November, which was marked by a consumer spending clampdown spurred by the financial meltdown, are an ominous sign for an economy in the early stages of a fragile recovery.

Now, the big worry is whether consumers won’t go back to the stores until the final hours before Dec. 25 as they wait for even bigger discounts in a season that’s expected to generate sales that are expected to be unchanged from a year ago.

According to early results Thursday, stores including Macy’s, teen merchant Wet Seal Inc., Children’s Place Retail Stores Inc. and discounter Fred’s Inc. reported sales declines.

Warehouse club operator Costco Wholesale Corp. posted a sales gain, though it’s smaller than expected. A bright spot was Limited Brands Inc., which runs Victoria’s Secret and Bath & Body Works. It reported a solid sales gain instead of the sales decrease that Wall Street projected.

The figures are based on sales at stores open at least a year and are considered a key indicator of a retailers’ health.

“We would have liked to have seen a bigger pop” to the start of the holiday season, said Ken Perkins, president of retail research firm Retail Metrics. He noted that the sales even weaker than November 2008, when spending plummeted amid a ballooning financial meltdown.

“This suggests that consumers are still under a significant amount of pressure from unemployment and job worries,” he said.

After consumers showed some signs of life in September and October, stores saw a sales lull throughout November until shoppers came out for the early morning specials for the day after Thanksgiving.

According to reports, however, shoppers were picky about what they bought for themselves and others, focusing on discounted basics like microwaves, boots and bed sheets over the holiday weekend. The hot pockets were electronics and online shopping, which is not reflected in most of the retail sales figures.

Economists say that depressed spending could persist for several years amid stubbornly high levels of unemployment, which is now at 10.2 percent, the highest in 26 years.

Amid a challenging economy, Costco fared well, posting a 6 percent increase; results were less than the 8.1 percent gain that analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected. However, half of that increase results from currency shifts and higher gas prices.

But discount retailer Fred’s Inc. posted a 3.3 percent decline, a bigger drop than the 1.6 percent drop analysts predicted. The retailer said its pharmacy department was strong in the month but discretionary spending by consumers remained weak.

Consumers “utilized layaways to a much greater extent than last year, deferring recognition of those sales until December,” said CEO Bruce A. Efird

Children’s Place said that sales at stores open at least a year slid 13 percent in November; analysts had forecast a 1 percent increase.

Wet Seal announced a 5 percent sales decline in November, though the decline was smaller than the 6.7 percent drop that Wall Street predicted.

But Limited posted a 3 percent sales gain, surpassing estimates from analysts who had expected a 2.5 percent decline.