Bristol-Myers expects profit of at least $1.95 a share in 2013, first full year without Plavix

Bristol-Myers post-Plavix outlook exceeds views

TRENTON, N.J. — Drugmaker Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. said Thursday it expects a profit of at least $1.95 per share in 2013, a crucial period because that’s when U.S. generic competition will start wiping out sales of its top-selling medicine, the blood thinner Plavix.

The forecast was a bit better than analysts expected for the drug company with likely the biggest percentage of sales at risk due to looming patent expirations.

Bristol-Myers shares rose 6 cents to $24.39 in morning trading. The company was hosting an afternoon meeting with analysts to review its drugs in development and business strategy.

Plavix, the world’s second-best selling prescription drug, loses U.S. patent protection in November 2011. Bristol-Myers markets the drug in this country, while its partner Sanofi-Aventis SA sells it in other countries, including in Europe, where recent generic rivals already are eroding sales.

Bristol-Myers got almost a third of its 2009 revenue from Plavix — $6.15 billion out of a total of $18.81 billion. The New York company is trying to offset that anticipated revenue loss by acquiring biotech drugs or small biotech companies in a strategy to remake itself as a biopharmaceutical company.

“We like the action that management at (Bristol-Myers) is taking to address these pending problems,” and expect about 30 percent of revenue in 2015 will come from new drugs or ones yet to be launched, BernsteinResearch analyst Dr. Tim Anderson said in a note to investors.

On average, analysts expect Bristol-Myers to earn $1.86 per share in 2013, with estimates ranging from $1.55 to $2.13 per share, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters.

The company, one of the world’s top 20 drugmakers, said its forecast excludes any impact from a potential health care overhaul.

Low-cost generic versions of Plavix, or clopidogrel, are expected to reach the U.S. market early in 2012, sending profits down the next couple years, with 2013 the expected low point. The company anticipates growth will return in 2014.

But Anderson noted that blockbuster psychiatric drug Abilify should get a generic competition in 2015, pushing profits back down.

Bristol-Myers plans to launch five drugs by 2012. Those are the blood thinner apixaban, organ transplant drug belatacept, cancer drug brivanib, diabetes drug dapagliflozin, and skin cancer drug ipilimumab. It is also projecting greater sales of its newest drugs.

“These are expected to drive growth in’ 13 and beyond,” Leerink Swann analyst Seamus Fernandez wrote, adding, “We don’t see a lot of room for upside to the stock from current levels.”

Aside from Plavix, its biggest-selling drugs include Abilify for schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, Avapro for high blood pressure, Baraclude for hepatitis B and Reyataz and Sustiva for HIV.

AP Business Writer Marley Seaman in New York contributed to this story.